Several years ago during a break in a scrum training class, a student approached me and asked “what do you think will come after scrum?”. At the time, I had no answer for this question. The several teams that I had worked with that had used scrum had gotten so much benefit from it, and the rest of the organization needed scrum so badly (in my opinion), that I couldn’t imagine the need for anything different for product development.
Our organization, its environment, and my understanding of scrum have all evolved quite a bit since that day. If asked the same question now, I would have several possible ideas to discuss, depending on the team and the situation. Scrum would probably be the starting point for all of those conversations, but in many cases it would be augmented by something else, or a modified version of scrum, or some other agile approach like Kanban might be the right answer. There are still many parts of our organization that will benefit from adopting scrum, and teams that have been using it for years have all evolved their own implementation of scrum that suits them well. I don’t see scrum going away in organization any time soon. But if it did not evolve it would seem a failure to me.
Scrum was invented in the early 90s. We’re approaching its 20 year anniversary. In software terms, that is ancient. That it has survived and in many ways thrives is a testament to its broad applicability. Most successful scrum adopters will augment the framework with other technical and business practices like XP, Innovation Games, and Lean Startup. Particularly with teams that are taking a Lean Startup approach, I’m beginning to see the need for the way we understand the Product Owner role to evolve. I’m not sure how that evolution will happen, but I wouldn’t be surprised if on such teams, the PO role gets absorbed into the cross-functional team, doing both the idea validation with customers as well as development of the software that results from those discussions. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Product Backlog Items sorted into categories like “working software”, “idea validation”, and “technical validation”, rather than having a single Definition of Done for all product backlog items. While this could be a slippery slope for an org that is not agile in its culture, experienced agile teams can gain significant advantages from such an approach since the learning we need most doesn’t always require us to build working software to get an answer (check out the link to Lean Startup above for more on this idea).
With these thoughts in mind, I started wondering: “Is scrum too much of a sacred cow to evolve?” I’m not sure the answer to that question, but while thinking about it, the idea came to me that Scrum is not a sacred cow as much as it is the Model-T of agile.
Ford didn’t invent the automobile, that honor goes to Nicolas-Joseph Cugnot, Gottlieb Daimler, Carl Benz, or Wilhelm Maybach, depending on the book you’re reading. What Ford did was figure out a way to mass produce the automobile and sell it to the public at an affordable price such that it became an integral part of the lives of nearly everyone on the planet today.
Similarly, Jeff Sutherland and Ken Schwaber didn’t invent agile. The ideas of agile go back to at least the 1950s and probably before that, and are part of a family of new approaches to doing business that also includes movements like Lean, Theory of Constraints, and Six Sigma in manufacturing, Leadership Agility and Radical Management in management theory, and Lean Startup and Innovation Games for learning about customer needs. What Jeff and Ken did was figure out a way to mass produce Agile and sell it to the software industry in a way that has put agile on the map all the way up the C level of nearly every organization where software is important. Gartner famously predicted that by this 2012, 80% of software development will be done with an agile approach. The focusing of agile principles into a broadly applicable framework like scrum was a major innovation, just as the development of the Model-T assembly line was a major innovation in manufacturing.
The Ford assembly line was the exact innovation needed in its day. It persisted as the primary innovation in the auto industry until the 1970s when companies like Toyota evolved a newer approach that was more fit to customer’s evolving needs and provided higher quality products. It took decades for Ford to adopt similar approaches to catch up to Toyota. The question for me is this: at 20 years old, will Scrum see the need to evolve, and if so, how?