Future Libraries: What Will The Reality Be?

I recently read Future Libraries: Dreams, Madness & Reality, co-written in 1995 by the estimable Walt Crawford and Michael Gorman. I’m still coming up to speed on the implications of digital publishing for libraries, so it was extremely helpful to read this work, focusing on the intersection of digital technologies and the manifold missions of libraries. The general thrust of the book – caution against a “TechnoLust” view of technology as a panacea and the hasty conclusion that physical libraries are soon going away – was clearly prescient in 1995, predating by several years the boom and subsequent bust of “eBooks 1.0”. Paper is clearly still the preferred reading medium in 2006. Our family is lucky to live a few blocks from a fantastic public library and it’s very much part of our world. Staff, space, and collections.
Yet at the same time so much has changed in the last 10 years that many of the specific points in this book now appear quaintly conservative. There’ s a lot of “no forseeable…” things that have in fact happened in a short few years – and the thesis that “in the unimaginable world of 2094, the library might be recognizable to a library user of today” is, to me, unimaginable.
I think it’s interesting look at what’s happened in the last decade as some guide to how much further things could change over the next. By 2015, will we arrive at, if not an “all-electronic future”, a world in which electronic distribution and consumption of texts is broadly adopted? Will the displacement of paper, for immersive reading as well as information retrieval, be well under way? I wonder what Messrs. Crawford and Gorman think now?
Some of the 20-20 hindsight points in this book are:
– No mention of HTML, HTTP or the Web. A year after Netscape’s founding, they are still talking about WAIS and Gopher, and calling the Internet the “I-Way”. A decade hence will unimaginable progress cause current discourses on “Web 2.0” and AJAX to sound as off-key?
– Skepticism about text string searching. “it is entirely possible that there is no universal solution… that allows the user to treat the entire collection of material as a single searchable entry and hope to make effective use of the results.” Google was still a few years off but AltaVista launched the year this was published, and was soon being used by millions of people.
– Elitism of PC/Internet access. Clearly there is still a Digital Divide. Yet, on a global basis, access to Internet-connected PCs and especially Internet-enabled phones is far more prevalent in 2006 than access to “mid-sized” libraries of 50,000 volumes, or good bookstores. We don’t have the $100 laptop yet but we will have the $50 laptop this decade – and it will open the portal to reading millions of works, for the price of a handful of physical books.
– Electronic journals viewed as a “murky” niche of questionable imprimatur. Today major academic journal publishers make the majority of their revenue from “e-only” subscriptions, and dual electronic/print subscriptions are most of the rest. Not only have respected, refereed journals gone electronic, but with “open access” and prepublication articles today’s world of research is a very different world in which physical distribution of printed copies is fast becoming secondary.
– Scanning of magazines impractical. Their numbers of 22MB per page after compression were based on a compression estimate of “25 percent of the original size” – they call this an “optimistic” figure but with the rise of JPEG2000, JBG2 and other more aggressive compression technologies of course this was really a very conservative figure. And, we are now poised to have terabyte+ storage on desktop PCs, and outrageous numbers like “168 gigabytes per year” are now measured in tens or hundreds of dollars. In fact their example of the New Yorker magazine to illustrate the impracticality of digital replicas of magazines is ironic given that in fact that 80 years of the New Yorker is available to consumers as 8 data DVDs for $63.
– Videodiscs a “trail of failures”. Hint: LaserVision was not the answer.
– CRTs entrenched and “the gap between CRTs and thin-screen devices seems to be growing”.
OK it’s perhaps unfair to pick on specific points like these. But I do think they point out just how rapidly things change. I am already e-reading for pleasure quite happily on a QVGA (320×240) PDA/phone and a Sony Reader makes e-reading for me just about equivalent to paper (better, in some respects). 10 years from now when the average smartphone has a full wallet-size XVGA-resolution display (if not a heads-up display), and electronic paper displays are $5 a sheet, will paper still represent 99% of the global reading consumption? Personally, I think it will be more like 70% and falling.
One key point is the understimation of true cost of physical books, especially in the global context. Messrs. Crawford and Gorman make the common mistake of considering just the direct costs of physical printing and distribution and coming with a low estimate for the % of the price of a book these costs represent. But the real point is that these costs and the nature of the physical book artifact multiply by several times the ultimate price that consumers and libraries pay for books. The storage and transportation of physical books and the attendant extra layers of distribution channel (wholesalers, etc.) not only make books and libraries expensive for consumers, but prohibitively expensive to those in the developing world that lack the necessary infrastructure. Not to mention the environmental costs. And one thing is for sure: while a lot of things have gotten cheaper since 1995, the retail price of books is not one of them.

4 Responses to Future Libraries: What Will The Reality Be?

  1. Dwight Kelly says:

    FYI – the 80 years of the New Yorker uses DjVu compression. The scanned pages were segmented & compressed. The “text” layer, basically any high contrast B&W elements, were compressed using a loss-less compression similar to JBIG1 while compressing the other elements, ie. images and paper background, were compressed using wavelet. OCR was not performed on the text because of copyright & licensing issues. Rather, The New Yorker leveraged their excellent card catalog for the issue & article metadata.

  2. victor says:

    Being a person who has been involved in establishing an online library (www.bookyards.com), I find your article most revealing and insightful….especially when you pinpoint how technological changes over time have affected libraries as a whole.
    While I cannot compare to your technical expertise in this regard, I can make a general comment on what I have seen over the past 6 years.
    Libraries will still be brick and stone, but digital libraries will be the trend for people who wish to obtain information and/or entertainment as quickly as possible.
    One can look at the proliferation of digital libraries that have occurred on the web to see how quickly things are evolving. Gutenberg alone has 2,000,000 ebooks downloaded per month…..a clear indication that reading habits are changing to a digital format..
    On our website, we have put together a good collection of digital libraries with books available for downloading. Just go to Bookyards “Library Collections – E Books” at http://www.bookyards.com/links.html?type=links&category_id=1780
    There are approximately 350 digital libraries separated alphabetically and by category, with over 200,000 ebooks…..by September, this total will probably be 500 online libraries with a combined total of 400,000 ebooks
    By this time next year….who knows….and I am confident that storage issues will not be an issue.

  3. Hi,
    Software companies may wish to help libraries leverage the popularity of user-generated content.
    I am a social entrepreneur who is forming an Association of Read-Aloud Recording Neighborhoods. The objective is to help public libraries offer read-aloud recording technologies, such as audio and video software editors. Many families may wish to record their spoken word performances of their favorite narratives, poems, and articles. Libraries that offer digital media creation technology may help promote reading and cultural preservation as family activities.
    The association’s two flagship services are: http://www.ReadingWithMomsAndDads.org and http://www.ReadingFromTheFront.us. Both Web sites are startup ventures to help families use the Internet to share their spoken word performances of narrative, poems, and articles. For this venture to succeed, it may be essential for software companies to be supportive of it.
    I posted the following to http://www.ParentsConnect.com so that the Web site’s members and Viacom will consider partnering with companies like Adobe to help libraries better integrate electronic texts with our performances of them:
    Hi,
    I am the creator of http://www.ReadingFromTheFront.us and http://www.ReadingWithMomsAndDad.org. I help families record their spoken word performances of short stories and poems so that they may share them online.
    This is a startup, nonprofit social entrepreneurial venture that helps moms, dads, grandparents, and children stay connected by offering read-aloud recording services. The larger objective is to place read-aloud recording technologies in libraries, schools, and places of worship. With broadcast quality microphones and audio engineering equipment in our neighborhoods, recording our spoken word performances of short stories and poems may help restore cultural preservation as a family activity. By recording our readings of short stories and poems we may celebrate the ideals, aesthetics, values, and traditions that sustain our families, neighborhoods, communities, cities, and cultures.
    This is a new venture that is not affiliated with any organization or foundation. I am supporting the Web hosting out of my own pocket and I am developing the sevices and marketing materials (brochures, presentations, public service announcements, etc.). But I need help. This endeavor needs institutional guidance. Any one person will unavoidably make too many mistakes to successfully shepherd this undertaking. Please consider how you may help introduce read-aloud recording services. There may be many opportunities for moms and dads to help their communities offer reading as a cultural preservation activity for families. With a committed group of moms and dads, it may be possible to create an Association of Read-Aloud Recording Neighborhoods, for example. Such an association may provide the consulting expertise for libraries, schools, and places of worship to develop read-aloud recording neighborhoods.
    Thank you for reading this post. I read about this Web site in the NY Times and I am not yet a parent, but I am a former teacher and a former defense contractor. I care deeply about the value of reading for families and I care deeply about bridging the distances that separate parents and their children. I am thankful for the contributors to http://www.ParentsConnect.com. Clearly the Web takes a giant step forward when parents connect with parents to help children.
    Cordially,
    Michael L. Johnson
    http://www.ReadingFromTheFront.us