I was able to attend the AIA/QUOIN Forum to hear Ken Simonson, Kermit Baker and Kim Kennedy speak on the 2008 Construction Economic Outlook. I use Ken's outlook extensively in writing my business plan each year. There was a quiet buzz in the room when I arrived, and it seemed like those in attendance where anxiously awaiting the news. I wanted to hear how the talk of the economy possibly going into recession is going to impact the AEC industry and when the heck was the housing market going to improve. It wasn't long before Ken delivered the news.
The answers to the questions I was seeking were fairly straight forward. Slow to moderate growth and we are looking at late 2008 or early 2009 before we see housing start to recover. Strong growth can be expected in Power, Energy, and Hospitals (Private) and we can expect weakening in Highways and Lodging. I think most of use were expecting the worse and at this time things are still relatively positive.
Another interesting part of the presentation was Kermit Baker, who is the Chief Economist for the AIA, spoke and he was able to illustrate some of the key trends and shifts in focus among architectural firms. Starting off it was interesting to hear that in 2007 the chief concern facing firms was attracting new qualified staff, while in 2008 that had shifted to identifying new clients and projects.
Kermit also shared a lot of data surrounding BIM. Where do we stand and what are the issues or concerns facing BIM. Firms using BIM on a billable projects was 20.3%. Firms who had no plans to acquire or use BIM was still relatively high at 43.9%. It was also interesting to hear what those who were using BIM thought about it.
Firms Top 3 Perceived Benefits:
1. Produces Higher Quality Projects
2. Sharing Models/Easier Collaboration
3. Faster Project Deliver
Firms Top 3 Perceived Risk:
1. High Share of Cost Incurred Earlier
2. Uncertainty About Liability
3. Cost Outweighs Benefits
Last but not least Kermit also shared the top 3 issues facing design and construction. They are as follows:
1. Technological advancements to increase productivity
2. Outsourcing design work offshore
3. Longer term market demand for sustainable design
I really enjoyed the meeting. It was great to hear the outlook and what the industry is facing in 2008. To me it is about being able to keep up and deliver the technology to meet the industries needs, but also understanding what exactly those needs are. Adobe has been putting a lot of effort in developing technology and functionality to address these needs and will continue to do so in the future.
Have fun,
Jonathan