In my last post, I dis­cussed audi­ence mea­sure­ment — unique vis­i­tors, page views, time spent on site, and impres­sions — and why I believe time spent on site is not, con­trary to what some are say­ing in the trade press, the best met­ric for mea­sure­ment. Today, more details on why page views are not nec­es­sar­ily the best mea­sure of vis­i­tor engagement…

As with other adver­tis­ing medi­ums, the online audi­ence mea­sure­ment indus­try was born out of the need to pro­vide pub­lish­ers with a com­mon cur­rency by which they could mar­ket and qual­ify their sites to prospec­tive advertisers.

If I’m an adver­tiser look­ing to reach 1 mil­lion peo­ple with a new movie pro­mo­tion, how would I know which media sites I should adver­tise on? If I had a com­mon met­ric — or a com­mon set of met­rics — I could quickly scan that list to find sites that reach 1 mil­lion peo­ple, and then buy that space to reach my audience.

For such sim­pli­fied audi­ence mea­sure­ment like this, Nielsen is the de facto stan­dard in the offline world, and at the out­set of the Inter­net, there was no online equivalent.

In the late 1990’s, audi­ence mea­sure­ment firms sought to be this com­mon cur­rency, offer­ing up met­rics like unique vis­i­tors, page views, and time-spent-on-site. Nielsen was one of the first to throw its hat in the ring. They cre­ated a ser­vice that pro­jected these met­rics for major Inter­net sites, based on a panel they main­tained of sev­eral thou­sands users.

This is nearly iden­ti­cal to their offline approach, and why not: if it worked in the offline world, why not give it a shot online? The chal­lenge is that this panel-based approach is eas­ily skewed and only use­ful at a very high-level. As I’ve talked about in the past, that’s because the Inter­net offers the poten­tial to suc­cess­fully reach peo­ple in extremely nar­row niches of inter­est. If you’re a knit­ter who also likes to quilt but who hates to cro­chet, there’s prob­a­bly a web­site for you and oth­ers with the same likes and dis­likes. On the other hand, it is highly unlikely that, even with its panel of thou­sands, an audi­ence mea­sure­ment panel will have many knit­ting, quilt­ing, crochet-haters on its panel.

Audi­ence mea­sure­ment firms will likely then strug­gle to mea­sure the niche-y craft site, when in real­ity, that site may see tens of thou­sands of vis­i­tors per month. A yarn com­pany look­ing for places to adver­tise, but who goes only by panel responses, may miss out on the site com­pletely, never know­ing there was a small but impor­tant group of crafts enthu­si­asts poten­tially eager to see the yarn company’s ads. And as many folks know, loyal cus­tomers can be 7x more valu­able than new cus­tomers, so tap­ping into this niche cus­tomer seg­ment is critical.

Along these same lines, tar­geted direct mar­ket­ing ini­tia­tives like email cam­paigns, paid search, new microsites, etc., can also be under­stated by such panel ser­vices. Again, those ini­tia­tives are likely to hit only a hand­ful of the pan­elists, and a “hand­ful” is gen­er­ally viewed as not being sta­tis­ti­cally sig­nif­i­cant enough to sur­face as a mean­ing­ful trend or change.

Sim­i­larly, when sites add new con­tent — new arti­cles, spe­cial edi­tions, etc. — these can be under­stated or unde­tected. By how much? There’s no way to tell for sure, unless you use web ana­lyt­ics, which is arguably the most accu­rate way to mea­sure the suc­cess of these initiatives.

Still in doubt? Run a sim­ple test. If you’re a retailer, look at how many orders you have on a given day as reported by your com­merce engine. Now check your web ana­lyt­ics plat­form. The orders, gen­er­ally speak­ing, should be within 2–3% — if not per­fectly in line. Now, check with an audi­ence mea­sure­ment firm – what are they report­ing for the day? I’ve done this mul­ti­ple times and never seen any­thing close to accu­rate. If you’re not a retailer, pick some­thing else – like leads, appli­ca­tions, etc – that you can val­i­date not only with web ana­lyt­ics but a back-end sys­tem. The key to this exer­cise is tri­an­gu­la­tion so you need at least one more data source beyond your web ana­lyt­ics and audi­ence mea­sure­ment services.

Of course, site-side ana­lyt­ics has his­tor­i­cally offered very lit­tle to adver­tis­ers in eval­u­at­ing com­pet­ing sites, so I read­ily acknowl­edge that audi­ence mea­sure­ment can be a use­ful proxy for com­par­a­tive traf­fic lev­els (as I’ve writ­ten about in the past.)

Still, in the late 1990s, when audi­ence mea­sure­ment firms intro­duced these pan­els, adver­tis­ers were under­stand­ably excited, because at least they could com­pare one site to another with the same met­rics. In fact, for some time, ven­ture cap­i­tal­ists and invest­ment bankers often used these same ser­vices to esti­mate val­u­a­tions for pre-IPO inter­net com­pa­nies, using unique vis­i­tors as the mea­sure of “eye­balls” the site could pre­sum­ably mon­e­tize into pay­ing cus­tomers some day.

Around the same time, page views also came to be viewed as a mea­sure of engage­ment. Folks began to real­ize that not all unique vis­i­tors are cre­ated equal: two sites that each have 1 mil­lion vis­i­tors can be very dif­fer­ent from each other in terms of reach, if most of the vis­i­tors to one of the sites come to the home page and then leave imme­di­ately, while vis­i­tors to the other site stay and browse.

Page views, then, became the check and bal­ance against unique vis­i­tors, and ide­ally the two taken together could pro­vide a rounded assess­ment of site engage­ment and rev­enue potential.

The chal­lenge with page views is that they are actu­ally not stan­dard­ized. Nielsen and other audi­ence mea­sure­ment firms could con­trol unique vis­i­tors because they man­aged the pan­els them­selves. They paid or oth­er­wise com­pen­sated each mem­ber of the panel so that unique­ness was fairly well pre­served.

But audi­ence mea­sure­ment firms do not and can­not con­trol page views because they source from the sites them­selves. Pages come in all dif­fer­ent shapes and sizes, some with dynamic con­tent and some that are com­pletely sta­tic. Not all page views are cre­ated equal – and audi­ence mea­sure­ment firms are faced with the impos­si­ble task of try­ing to cre­ate a com­mon stan­dard. And let’s pre­tend for a sec­ond that this was achievable…that audi­ence mea­sure­ment firms had picked apart every web page from every site, and clas­si­fied it as a page view. Well, Web con­tent can change mul­ti­ple times per day per site so while the utopian stan­dard could have the­o­ret­i­cally been accu­rate, it would have quickly become inac­cu­rate as con­tent and lay­out changed.

For exam­ple, there is the stan­dard HTML page that we all know. That’s fairly easy to stan­dard­ize across sites.

But then there are gen­er­ated pages with dynamic URLs such as retail web­sites that cre­ate new URLs on the fly for each prod­uct. What do you do with that? On top of that, you have dynamic pages that do not change the URL at all (see my exam­ple about the GAP in my pre­vi­ous post.

And stream­ing media and wid­gets are not even pages — they are com­plete expe­ri­ences in and of themselves.

As the Web has evolved, these “non-traditional” pages have become increas­ingly preva­lent, because in many cases, they pro­vide a supe­rior cus­tomer experience.

So while page views emerged as an early mea­sure of engage­ment, it really was never fair to com­pare it across sites — whether they were tracked by a panel or otherwise.

In my next post, I’ll dis­cuss audi­ence mea­sure­ment firms’ “new” met­ric, time-spent-on-site.

  • Rob Blake­ley

    Some thoughts: If adver­tis­ers want to pay for time-spent, they will get it or they may go else­where. That aside, what’s the goal of engage­ment, time-spent , or any other met­ric or com­bi­na­tion of met­rics ? Fol­low the money. If the met­ric trend line matches the profit trend line, then you have val­i­dated the met­ric. In fact, there is a good chance that the met­ric would be pre­dic­tive. If not, stop using it. Who’s money? If you are a retailer, it’s your money. If you are an adver­tiser, then it’s sort of your money. They pay you to drive their profit. Demon­strat­ing that with your met­ric would require more coop­er­a­tion and risk than most com­pa­nies are will­ing to undertake.

  • http://suzyjenkins.deviantart.com/journal/25268259/ Susan

    I still like to mea­sure pageviews per vis­i­tor, and i’m curi­ous as to the indus­try aver­age? I have never been able to find an accu­rate num­ber. I guess by read­ing this arti­cle above, you really can’t com­pare that either?