With 2009 pre­dic­tions whizzing around the web, I decided to write instead about what I’m wish­ing for in 2009. I’m hop­ing for an “if you build it, he will come” moment. With­out fur­ther ado…

1) Agen­cies Get On Board

Aside from the hand­ful of agen­cies that spe­cial­ize in test­ing and con­ver­sion opti­miza­tion, I’ve seen far less progress than I expected this year. To do a san­ity check, I googled “[agency name] mul­ti­vari­ate” on the top 4 dig­i­tal agen­cies of 2007 from AdAge. Here’s what I found:

Avenue A | Razor­fish is the only search that yields any sub­stan­tial result, and that is to a partner’s press release focus­ing on the plat­form rather than their own in-house exper­tise. Con­trast that with search­ing for “[agency name] cre­ative”, and you’ll find that Dig­i­tas and Ogilvy rank #1 in SEO and Avenue A | Razor­fish at #3.

I know that part of the prob­lem is that agen­cies have a tough time con­vinc­ing clients to test. But I sus­pect that agen­cies are also not yet account­able for test­ing, so why deliver some options that may quan­tifi­ably fail when you can deliver a sin­gle option that unquan­tifi­ably wins? The lat­ter requires less level-of-effort and chance of has­sle. Unfor­tu­nately it also has less upside for the cus­tomer. Hope­fully agen­cies will con­sider the sig­nif­i­cance of pro­vid­ing more value to their cus­tomers, and what that may yield for them long-term.

My rea­son for want­ing agen­cies to get on board is self­ish. I believe that agen­cies (at their best) are the strate­gic part­ners of cus­tomers, and they can help prove the value of test­ing. But it feels a bit like the chicken-and-the-egg. Agen­cies aren’t com­pelled to actively bring test­ing skills and expe­ri­ence in-house with­out clients ask­ing for it, and clients may not be edu­cated enough to take on test­ing with­out an agency resource!

2) Off­site + Onsite = 1 Vis­i­tor Experience

I’ve def­i­nitely seen great strides already taken this year in try­ing to treat a visitor’s path through off­site and onsite as one cohe­sive expe­ri­ence. Some of our cus­tomers are doing really inter­est­ing projects involv­ing the test­ing of retar­geted ads out on 3rd-party sites and build­ing a sin­gle pro­file that can be extended and rein­forced at every online touch point. I’m excited to see how that plays out in 2009.

How­ever, I’ve also seen a lot of poorly exe­cuted land­ing page expe­ri­ences that show there’s no dis­cus­sion going on between those in charge of acqui­si­tion and those in charge of the site. If there is any con­fu­sion around where to begin test­ing, I’d highly rec­om­mend start­ing there. Land­ing pages are typ­i­cally eas­ier to change and tag, and trans­form­ing a post-click expe­ri­ence from gen­eral and 80% irrel­e­vant to tar­geted and 100% rel­e­vant usu­ally yields great lift!

3) Mul­ti­vari­ate Test­ing (MVT) Becomes Another Tool in the Toolbox

There’s no ques­tion that mul­ti­vari­ate test­ing is an incred­i­bly pow­er­ful tool. But it’s cer­tainly not the only tool you need or have to increase con­ver­sion on your site. I think of it as the ham­mer in the say­ing, “when all you have is a ham­mer, every­thing looks like a nail.” There are many efforts that mul­ti­vari­ate test­ing is not the best tool for, includ­ing mas­sive func­tion­al­ity changes (e.g. 5-page check­out vs. 1-page check­out) and auto­mated behav­ioral tar­get­ing. The prob­lem with look­ing at MVT as the all-purpose cleaner is that it lim­its your vision to con­sider other types of tests, and it also rein­forces a frag­mented mar­ket­ing divi­sion. I can’t count how many meet­ings I’ve been to where the cat­a­lyst is an RFP for MVT. Once we start talk­ing about the site’s ini­tia­tives though, we begin to under­stand that there is also inter­est around seg­men­ta­tion and tar­get­ing. How­ever, that’s a sep­a­rate project man­ager and a sep­a­rate RFP, and nobody is inter­ested in get­ting together in the same room.

4) Tar­get­ing Belongs in the Same Toolbox

Tar­get­ing for the sake of tar­get­ing is not always effec­tive. I have seen numer­ous cases where the first attempt strikes out. Some­times peo­ple don’t want to see their first name read back to them, but they do like see­ing their search terms repeated. Oth­ers like to see an offer rein­forc­ing the deal they saw in the ad, but they may not want to see the same exact image. With­out test­ing, you’re still not mak­ing data-driven deci­sions. At best, you’re mak­ing more edu­cated guesses.

5) Web Opti­miza­tion Col­lab­o­ra­tion Takes Off

Are you sens­ing a trend here? : I want more col­lab­o­ra­tion between acqui­si­tion mar­keters and site mar­keters, com­pa­nies and agen­cies, ven­dors and com­pa­nies! I think every­body wins when we share more of our test­ing expe­ri­ence and I’m con­vinced there has to be a way to do it with­out giv­ing up com­pet­i­tive intel­li­gence. So far the webop­ti­miza­tion group has had some good dis­cus­sion around get­ting test­ing buy-in, and some very spicy dis­cus­sion around ven­dor com­par­isons. Tell me how you think a forum should be con­structed to be most ben­e­fi­cial, and then let’s work together to make it a reality.

6) Suc­ceed Often and Fail Fast

This one’s a lit­tle off the web opti­miza­tion rails, but I wish Pres­i­dent Obama all the best in mak­ing 2009 a year of recov­ery and suc­cesses. I don’t think it’s pos­si­ble to not fail, espe­cially given these tumul­tuous and uncer­tain times, so I’d just like to encour­age him and all the rest of us to fail fast and keep on truckin’!

Happy New Year!

Photo cred­its:
http://​www​.flickr​.com/​p​h​o​t​o​s​/​j​o​l​i​e​n​v​a​l​l​i​n​s​/​1​5​0​5​8​7​1​4​97/
http://​www​.flickr​.com/​p​h​o​t​o​s​/​d​o​w​n​_​u​n​d​e​r​_​i​m​a​g​e​s​/​6​7​9​4​0​0​9​38/

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  • http://longmarch.chinalytics.com Flo­rian Pihs

    Com­ing from an agency, I am not sur­prised that few agen­cies offer MVT, or A/B test­ing for that mat­ter. Some of the rea­sons I see are:
    1) Most 4A agen­cies work for brand adver­tis­ers.
    –Most of their traf­fic goes to cam­paign sites, cam­paign sites are mainly in Flash, Flash is hard to MVT even A/B test are more resource inten­sive since you need to build 2 Flash expe­ri­ences. Plus cam­paign sites are often not online long enough to allow effec­tive test­ing & opti­miza­tion, since turn around times are slow.
    2) These brand adver­tis­ers often do not define suc­cess as actions taken on the web­site (although that is chang­ing a bit) but as changes in brand aware­ness or pref­er­ence. MVT test­ing does not move the nee­dles on these met­rics.
    3) Deci­sions on design are made in large “all hands on” meet­ings. The voice of the cus­tomer does not sit on a table.
    4) The closer the web­site get to the core busi­ness $$ the less likely com­pa­nies are out­sourc­ing key func­tions like ana­lyt­ics and test­ing to agen­cies, but build their team.

  • http://blogs.omniture.com/author/lchiu Lily Chiu

    Hey Flo­rian, thanks for the insight­ful com­ments! I agree that many of a 4A agency’s efforts go towards brand­ing but I don’t think that should auto­mat­i­cally dis­qual­ify them from mea­sure­ment. It seems too easy to get a pass on try­ing to mea­sure and inter­pret how a cam­paign per­forms by putting it under the brand­ing umbrella, even if the suc­cess may not be a sin­gle con­ver­sion event like an order or sign-up.

    In response to the decision-making process, I would think that the per­fect way to incor­po­rate the voice of the cus­tomer is to inte­grate test­ing into the design process. Oth­er­wise agen­cies are mak­ing a delib­er­ate deci­sion to work in a customer-excluded silo, pri­or­i­tiz­ing their designs and hypothe­ses above all oth­ers. I don’t see how that works as a move-forward strat­egy as more com­pa­nies con­tinue to test, iter­ate and improve. (Am I look­ing at the world through rose-colored glasses?!)

    I’d also love to hear how you and oth­ers feel about the announce­ment of WPP’s invest­ment in Omni­ture. I per­son­ally think it will go a long way towards ful­fill­ing my first wish :)

    Thanks!
    – Lily