Flash Player 9 is at 35.9% penetration in the mature markets, three months after release. This is on track with the Flash Player 8 ramp up and the download rates are the same to slightly up, so you can safely use the v8 ramp up as the projection for v9.
To make a fair comparison between this stat and the first quarter after v8 released, there are two things to note:
1) The first penetration stat for v8 was closer to four months after launch because we had to re-run the December 2005 study in early January 2006 due to a data issue with the original study.
2) The Dec 2005 number from NPD is for the US. So the first v8 stat was 45.2% in the US (Dec 2005)and the first stat for v9 is 40.3% (Sept 2006) in the US. Adjusting for the actual length of time for each and +/- the margin of error, v9 is the same to slightly faster.
As a reminder, we are running the emerging markets study every other quarter and the main number we are reporting is the mature markets results. We have also decided to drop Flash Player 5 from the study, because the v5 and v6 numbers were very similar.