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The sky is falling, the sky is falling!

Okay, maybe not, but this may be some people’s reaction to Avid not showing up at NAB 2008…

UPDATE 11/15/07: Ron Lindebloom of Creative Cow opined a piece and it’s worth reading. He takes a similar view to my own and throws in a little bit about the Cow for good measure…  here’s the link

First off, you probably want the link.  You can get the press release here

To me, I see this as a natural reaction of Avid dealing with a prolonged struggle to market changes. Their customers have resisted the idea of continuing to migrate to newer hardware and while certain divisions have continued to perform like Digidesign, others have struggled and the result is that Avid’s bottom line has been a problem.

Honestly, there are things that make sense about this move.  Everyone knows who Avid is and they can rent meeting rooms and accomplish much of the same result and not spend millions of dollars.  What do they accomplish by being there in a big way?  On top of that, Avid’s move will likely stave off more layoffs.  If I had to make the choice of participating at NAB but layoff more people that I need to be competitive, I’ll choose bowing out of the show, though I’d do it reluctantly.

Nonetheless, it is surprising the industry and I understand that too.  It’s on the same order of saying that Panasonic or Sony are not going to be in the South Hall – it’s just inconceivable!  This could be a chance for Apple and Adobe to say "we’ve won!" but I think that would be premature.

This begs the question, "Where does Adobe fit in all of this?" Our answer has always been that we play nice with Avid and Apple and will continue to do so.  Do you use FCP? Great, you need After Effects and Photoshop (probably more apps too.)  Do you use Avid?  Great – same message for you.  Of course, we’re excited to see more and more broadcasters and high-end professionals embracing Premiere Pro too.

Do I think Avid will weather this storm?  Yes.  Will this change how they do business?  Yes.  Are there more questions here? Probably…

So, what do you think?  Let me know!

Comments

while I have never used an avid and think they rode on their name rather than their product I hope they turn things around and start innovating. Competition will help keep both adobe and apple on their toes. Adobe’s apparent arrogance on the acrobat kinkos button and unilateral changes to ps’s printing tools shows what user’s futures will be like if either adobe or apple have monoplies in any one area. One m$ is enough.

[DR - note that the Kinkos button has been removed]

When I read this, I think of IBM (the invisible), CCH (publishing (paper, topical reporting)(had a market share of 65% at one time) and did not see the the PC train coming until they lost 30% market share to DVD publishing.

A a friend said, “You gotta give UP ALL HOPE of having a better past”

Avid sold within 18 months is my bet.

Ken

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