“Like sands through the hourglass….”

Big Techmeme cluster today, prompting headlines of “What’s Going On, Adobe?”… seem to be triggered by this Engadget blurb: “Verizon’s webpage dedicated to the Xoom has just gone up and one of our eagle-eyed readers has already spotted a disquieting bit of small print: ‘Adobe Flash expected Spring 2011.'”

I don’t know Motorola’s schedule myself, but it’s usually better to wait for actual news than to get all excited about a partner’s little snippet.

The important thing is that humanity is now on the verge of universal connectivity through personal displays. The trend is for common high-performance among them — with hardware, OS, engines, distribution, and business models all evolving simultaneously to attain this. Hot “Brand X vs Brand Y’ debating may bring in click-revenue from early adopters, but is less important in the long run than how we’ll end up using these new communication abilities. That’s the real priority for attention now.

Update: Matt Rozen has more on how the early Honeycomb releases will go: “Adobe will offer Flash Player 10.2 pre-installed on some tablets and as an OTA download on others within a few weeks of Android 3 (Honeycomb) devices becoming available, the first of which is expected to be the Motorola Xoom.” Estimates for 2011 total shipments have risen recently, too.

3 Responses to “Like sands through the hourglass….”

  1. Matthew Fabb says:

    I understand that it’s hard to get all these various schedules in line, with it not just being Adobe but Google, Motorola and Verizon all having their own schedules.

    It doesn’t effect me as a consumer, as it’s know these devices will get Flash and Adobe AIR, but as a developer it effects me a lot more. I think in this area Adobe could offer a bit more clarity with their mobile plans, even if the target dates stay vague because of all these different and bigger partners.

    Example it’s been announced that Adobe is working on Flash Player 10.2 for Honeycomb, but it’s still unknown if older Android devices will get 10.2 or if they will be stuck with 10.1.

    Also something that the tech gossip blogs didn’t pick up on was where Adobe AIR falls into this and if early Honeycomb devices like the Xoom will be able to install AIR. As while it’s not that big of a deal for site owners with Flash content to miss out on some early tablet users, it’s a bigger deal for companies making AIR apps for Android. Company manager/execs are going to have questions for their developers about why their AIR apps don’t work on the latest Android tablets and developers are not going to be able to answer all the questions. This is a particularly volatile area, when companies have been debating what cross-platform tools to use (AIR vs PhoneGap vs Appcelerator, etc.) versus native.

    It’s quite a shift from a few years ago when the latest version of Flash Player would come out on desktop. Developers would be excited about new features, but often there was a several month wait for penetration of the latest version of Flash to come out before it could be used in commercial sites. However, today’s world of building apps, companies are concerned a lot more with when new versions of AIR are being released.

    • John Dowdell says:

      Definitely understood on how content developers need to plan schedules… just as important as the other layers of hardware, operating system, and runtime engine. All are growing quickly now. Turbulent, but we do know the direction.