Note that this is not part of my day job, and any views expressed on this topic are my own and do not reflect any position of Adobe’s on these issues.
This is a long one, but the punchline is that Dr. David Hailey has published some new analysis of 2004’s infamous purported Bush National Guard memos, with access to much better copies of them than have previously been available to anyone outside CBS. Although I disagree with his conclusions, having better samples has allowed me to do some analysis of my own, and I do believe we’ve got even more certainty about the typeface: it’s Times Roman (from Linotype, distributed heavily by Adobe and Apple) rather than Times New Roman (from Monotype, distributed heavily by Microsoft).
[Update, later same day: So, I'm reading through the Wikipedia entry on authenticity issues (cited below), and I run into this bit. "Desktop magazine in Australia analysed the documents in its November 2004 issue and concluded that the typeface was a post-1985 version of Times Roman, rather than Times New Roman...." Well, so much for my write-up being a scoop! All I can say is that I don't recall that bit being there the last time I read the entire Wikipedia article... sigh.]