Using the Fist of Five technique to gauge confidence

In Scrum Training courses, we do a scrum simulation that is pretty fun. Early on in the simulation, teams need to do sprint planning. If you’re familiar with scrum, you’ll know that the primary purpose of the Sprint Planning Meeting is for the team to arrive at a commitment to delivering a Sprint Goal and/or a set of Product Backlog Items during the Sprint. In the simulation, I push the teams pretty hard as far as the amount of time they get to do sprint planning. They usually have not quite enough time to really think through the plan, but I push them to make a commitment anyway. Under this pressure, most teams will smile and make a commitment to a plan in which they’re not very confident. This pattern of commitment with low confidence is a persistent challenge with many of the teams that I work with.

To help highlight this pattern of commitment without confidence, I use a facilitation technique called “Fist of Five”. As soon as the team has their commitment and I’ve looked around the table asking if everyone agrees (typically with everyone nodding, and often with at least one person’s body language screaming “no way” while they nod their head), I’ll ask them to think for a moment about their own personal confidence that the team will meet its commitment. I ask them to think of how confident they are on a scale of one to five, with one meaning not confident at all, and five meaning completely confident that barring some highly unusual circumstance, the team will meet the goal.

Fists of FiveI tell them that once they’ve got their one to five number in mind, to simply put their fist in the air without revealing their vote, indicating that they’re ready. When all of the fists are in the air, I ask hem to reveal their votes together on the count of three. It’s always a revealing moment when some people who had passively nodded their heads to the team’s commitment hold up a two or three (or even a one). I then ask anyone with lower than a four to share their concerns about meeting the commitment. Often this results in a quick change to either the plan or the commitment itself to address the concerns of those that were not at a four or five. With the modified plan, we’ll re-vote until everyone is at a four or five.

I’ve found this facilitation technique to be useful in many situations where there might be tacit agreement to a plan without true confidence. I’ve used it in sprint planning meetings, release planning sessions, and even family discussions where we’re deciding what to do.

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