10,000 hours not the predictor, but the result

A new meta-analysis of 88 recent studies shows that the famous 10,000 hour rule (see the original study by Ericsson or the popularized version told by Gladwell) for mastery accounts for only a small percentage of variance in expert level performance. Other factors that seem to be at least as important: intrinsic talent, how early in life one is introduced to the area, and, perhaps the most important factor, how much the individual enjoys the activity.


So, to put this in context, the most likely path to mastery of some topic in life is to explore many different things at an early age, find one that is really enjoyable and that you have some talent at (in other words, you find it much easier than many of your peers do), and then focus on it. You’ll be naturally motivated to spend the 10,000 hour figure, making that figure a result of the real root cause – enjoyment.

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