Sifting through Big Data to Predict Holiday 2012 Shopping Activity

Today we made some bold predictions about what the holiday shopping season will look like based on a predictive analysis of Adobe Digital Index data. Specifically, we project that Cyber Monday will be the busiest online shopping day of 2012 reaching $2 billion in sales, growing by 18 percent year-over-year. We’ve leveraged the Adobe Marketing Cloud to sift through big data (more than 150 bil­lion online vis­its to 500+ retail web­sites over the past six years) to understand the shopping patterns informing our forecasts. Want to know exactly how our analysis works? Read more from our Digital Index marketing analyst, Tyler White, here.

Other Digital Index predictions for the season include:

  • Black Friday (November 23) is expected to be the second largest online sales day of 2012 when retailers will see a sales increase of 12 percent, year-over-year.
  • Sales from mobile devices are projected to increase 110 percent this holiday season compared to last year, with sales from tablets constituting 13.5 percent of total sales, more than double that of smartphones (6.5 percent) and other devices such as e-readers (one percent).
  • Out of social media referral sources to retail websites, referrals from Pinterest are expected to grow the most, doubling from seven percent to 14 percent, year-over-year.
  • Despite widespread discounts offered during the Thanksgiving weekend, the best deals will actually be found online the week before Christmas, not on Black Friday or Cyber Monday. The largest price reductions are expected to come on Free Shipping Day.

To view more of our holiday shopping forecasts, check out our infographic for a graphical representation and our new interactive website where you can slice and dice our predictions alongside real-time data throughout the season and compare various retail metrics such as “conversion,” “online sales,” “average price,” “visits” and more by retail segments and product categories within the U.S. and Europe.

Read what The Wall Street Journal, MediaPost, PCWorld and CNN Money are saying about our news. Happy shopping!