In 2016 the Academy doesn’t care about Oscar social favorites.
The red carpet, designer gowns and tuxes, and countless Tweets are what make up the Oscars. It’s a chance for 6000 members of the Academy of motion pictures to buck popular opinion and choose who they think is the “best.”
Last year I used social tracking to predict 5 of the 6 top categories (Supporting Actor/Actress, Director, Actor/Actress, and Picture) for the Oscars. I created my social based predictions by looking at the name of the nominee tied to Oscar related terms. By adding in social sentiment and buzz growth, I determine who was the social fan favorite to win.
Here is a recap of last year, we tracked not just total mentions but growth:
Best Picture: Birdman (Mentions) American Sniper (Growth) W-Birdman
Best Actor: Bradley Cooper (Mentions) Michael Keaton (Growth) W-Eddie Redmayne
Best Actress: Julianne Moore (Still Alice) W-Julianne Moore
Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) W-J.K. Simmons
Supporting Actress: Meryl Streep (Mentions) Patricia Arquette (Growth) W-Patricia Arquette
Best Director: Wes Anderson (Mentions) Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu (Growth) W-Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu
Following that same model. The Adobe Digital Index predicted the 2016 winners. This year the Academy chose to give in to the fans Leonardo DiCaprio and Alicia Vikander and nothing else.
2016 Predictions and results
Best Picture: The Revenant (Mentions), The Revenant (Growth) W-Spotlight
Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio (Mentions), Leonardo DiCaprio (Growth) W-Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (Mentions), Jennifer Lawrence (Growth) W-Brie Larson
Best Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone (Mentions), Tom Hardy (Growth) W-Mark Rylance
Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander (Mentions), Rachel McAdams (Growth) W-Alicia Vikander
Best Director: George Miller (Mentions), George Miller (Growth) W-Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu
Social mentions have proven to be a great way to predict movie success, Super Bowl ad value, and Fall TV predictions. However, the Academy chose once again to buck the social trend, but at least it gave Leo and his fans what they justly deserved.