Blog Post:In 2016 the Academy doesn’t care about Oscar social favorites. The red carpet, designer gowns and tuxes, and countless Tweets are what make up the Oscars. It’s a chance for 6000 members of the Academy of motion pictures to buck popular opinion and choose who they think is the “best.” Last year I used social tracking to predict 5 of the 6 top categories (Supporting Actor/Actress, Director, Actor/Actress, and Picture) for the Oscars. I created my social based predictions by looking at the name of the nominee tied to Oscar related terms. By adding in social sentiment and buzz growth, I determine who was the social fan favorite to win. Here is a recap of last year, we tracked not just total mentions but growth: Best Picture:  Birdman (Mentions) American Sniper (Growth) W-Birdman Best Actor: Bradley Cooper (Mentions) Michael Keaton (Growth) W-Eddie Redmayne Best Actress: Julianne Moore (Still Alice) W-Julianne Moore Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) W-J.K. Simmons Supporting Actress: Meryl Streep (Mentions) Patricia Arquette (Growth) W-Patricia Arquette Best Director: Wes Anderson (Mentions) Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu (Growth) W-Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu   Following that same model. The Adobe Digital Index predicted the 2016 winners. This year the Academy chose to give in to the fans Leonardo DiCaprio and Alicia Vikander and nothing else. 2016 Predictions and results Best Picture: The Revenant (Mentions), The Revenant (Growth) W-Spotlight Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio (Mentions), Leonardo DiCaprio (Growth) W-Leonardo DiCaprio Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (Mentions), Jennifer Lawrence (Growth) W-Brie Larson Best Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone (Mentions), Tom Hardy (Growth) W-Mark Rylance Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander (Mentions), Rachel McAdams (Growth) W-Alicia Vikander Best Director: George Miller (Mentions), George Miller (Growth) W-Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu Social mentions have proven to be a great way to predict movie success, Super Bowl ad value, and Fall TV predictions. However, the Academy chose once again to buck the social trend, but at least it gave Leo and his fans what they justly deserved. Author: Date Created:March 1, 2016 Date Published: Headline:The Academy Doesn’t Care About Social Favorites Social Counts: Keywords: Publisher:Adobe Image:https://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Screen-Shot-2016-02-29-at-4.14.01-PM-e1456787685850.png

In 2016 the Academy doesn’t care about Oscar social favorites.

The red carpet, designer gowns and tuxes, and countless Tweets are what make up the Oscars. It’s a chance for 6000 members of the Academy of motion pictures to buck popular opinion and choose who they think is the “best.”

Last year I used social tracking to predict 5 of the 6 top categories (Supporting Actor/Actress, Director, Actor/Actress, and Picture) for the Oscars. I created my social based predictions by looking at the name of the nominee tied to Oscar related terms. By adding in social sentiment and buzz growth, I determine who was the social fan favorite to win.

Here is a recap of last year, we tracked not just total mentions but growth:

Best Picture:  Birdman (Mentions) American Sniper (Growth) W-Birdman

Best Actor: Bradley Cooper (Mentions) Michael Keaton (Growth) W-Eddie Redmayne

Best Actress: Julianne Moore (Still Alice) W-Julianne Moore

Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) W-J.K. Simmons

Supporting Actress: Meryl Streep (Mentions) Patricia Arquette (Growth) W-Patricia Arquette

Best Director: Wes Anderson (Mentions) Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu (Growth) W-Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu

 

Following that same model. The Adobe Digital Index predicted the 2016 winners. This year the Academy chose to give in to the fans Leonardo DiCaprio and Alicia Vikander and nothing else.

2016 Predictions and results

Best Picture: The Revenant (Mentions), The Revenant (Growth) W-Spotlight

Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio (Mentions), Leonardo DiCaprio (Growth) W-Leonardo DiCaprio

Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (Mentions), Jennifer Lawrence (Growth) W-Brie Larson

Best Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone (Mentions), Tom Hardy (Growth) W-Mark Rylance

Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander (Mentions), Rachel McAdams (Growth) W-Alicia Vikander

Best Director: George Miller (Mentions), George Miller (Growth) W-Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu

Social mentions have proven to be a great way to predict movie success, Super Bowl ad value, and Fall TV predictions. However, the Academy chose once again to buck the social trend, but at least it gave Leo and his fans what they justly deserved.